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[]
[]
[null,"Excel-Tabelle"]
[null,"Diese Excel-Tabelle berechnet eine \"Trend-Percentage\", welche angibt"]
[null,null,"- wie stark der Trend ist (Quantität), sowie"]
[null,null,"- wie gut der Trend ist (Qualität)."]
[]
[null,"Je stärker und je ausgeprägter der Trend ist, desto höher ist der Prozentsatz."]
[null,"Definition: Ein \"guter\" Trend ist ein Trend"]
[null,null,"a) mit wenigen und"]
[null,null,"b) mit geringen Schwankungen in die Gegenrichtung."]
[]
[null,"Zu beachten ist, dass das Analyseergebnis einerseits das Trendverhalten über den gesamten Zeitraum (1 Börsenjahr) berechnet, andererseits "]
[null,"zusätzlich noch das Trendverhalten der letzten 40 Börsentage darstellt."]
[null,"Ein Analyseergebnis wie zum Beispiel \"Abwärtstrend, zuletzt stabiler Aufwärtstrend\" bedeutet also, dass über den gesamten Zeitraum ein "]
[null,"Abwärtstrend, in den letzten 40 Börsentagen jedoch ein stabiler Aufwärtstrend vorliegt."]
[]
[null,"Es können nicht alle Ausprägungen dargstellt werden, da sonst die Excel-Formel zu lang geworden wäre."]
[]
[]
[null,"Damit das Programm funktioniert, muss das Excel-Add-in \"Analyse-Funktionen\" (Datei Analys32.xll) installiert sein. Die Installation wird automatisch"]
[null,"beim Laden der Tabelle durchgeführt. Wenn die Datei nicht auf Ihrem Computer vorhanden ist: siehe Excel-Menü \"Extras |Add-ins\"."]
[]
[null,"Das Programm arbeitet mit Zufallskursen, wobei Sie die Trendstärke einstellen können:"]
[null,null,"In Zelle C1 steht standardmäßig 50%, was bedeutet, dass die Kursentwicklung rein zufällig ist."]
[null,null,"Geben Sie in Zelle C1 beispielsweise 30% oder einen anderen Prozentwert <50% ein, werden Kursentwicklungen mit einem signifikanten Aufwärtstrend erzeugt."]
[null,null,"Prozentwerte >50% resultieren in einem signifikanten Abwärtstrend."]
[]
[null,"Fazit"]
[null,"Neue Ansätze am Fondsmarkt dienen der Absicherung Ihres Wettbewerbsvorteils."]
[null,"Die Möglichkeit, die Märkte anhand einer einzigen Kennzahl zu charakterisieren, ist ein wertvolles Instrument in den Händen eines Vermögensverwalters."]
[]
[null,"Freundliche Grüße,"]
[]
[null,"Thomas Pflügl"]
[null,"______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________"]
[]
[null,"Thomas Pflügl - Wertpapier-Research",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"© Copyright:",null,"Thomas Pflügl, 2010"]
[]
[null,"e-mail: "]
[null,null,"thomas.pfluegl@aon.at"]
[null,"World-Wide-Web:"]
[null,null,"https://thomaspfluegl.com/tips"]
[null,"______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________"]

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[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,"Klicken Sie auf den Chart oder drücken Sie \"F9\" um eine neue Zeitreihe zu berechnen."]
[null,"#","Date","Close",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Random",null,"40 days",null,"#"]
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[null,{"$f":"B7+1","v":2},"2004-01-02",{"$f":"IF(S8>$D$1,D7+D7*RAND()/$S$2,IF(S8<$D$1,D7-D7*RAND()/$S$2))","v":997.6307262810169},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.18633766005703911,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,{"$f":"W7+1","v":2}]
[null,3,"2004-01-05",1021.3202981848041,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.98309174464515769,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,3]
[null,4,"2004-01-06",1003.8970237967305,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.42169089959156891,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,4]
[null,5,"2004-01-07",1005.1376731995388,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.57709565729642009,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,5]
[null,6,"2004-01-08",985.21737172126006,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.45234865694141424,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,6]
[null,7,"2004-01-09",961.8560007868108,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.34138127764656845,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,7]
[null,8,"2004-01-12",968.65934071296419,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.86130532669912219,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,8]
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[null,10,"2004-01-14",940.43304456889712,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.48210531413871271,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,10]
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[null,15,"2004-01-21",947.27428436692901,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.44117374441547785,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,15]
[null,16,"2004-01-22",931.78759157269269,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.33512439955028361,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,16]
[null,17,"2004-01-23",943.76965735713441,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.74372439235519305,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,17]
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[null,20,"2004-01-28",958.23927624957707,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.61005417493316805,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,20]
[null,21,"2004-01-29",930.96105682697373,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,9.122570690851739E-2,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,21]
[null,22,"2004-01-30",958.23223385807205,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.83492422552926771,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,22]
[null,23,"2004-02-02",981.84212439033809,null,"Trendtest (gesamte Zeitreihe)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.97954365601207694,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,23]
[null,24,"2004-02-03",976.56273723465233,null,"Daten zur Berechnung",{"$f":"INTERCEPT(D7:D256,$W$7:$W$256)","v":871.29135453446804},{"$f":"INDEX(LINEST(D7:D256,$W$7:$W$256,1,1),4,1)","v":614.96519191932714},{"$f":"RSQ(D7:D256,$W$7:$W$256)","v":0.71261876803116242},{"$f":"INDEX(LINEST(D7:D256,$W$7:$W$256,1,1),2,1)","v":6.1251851696863674E-2},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.46931361439782848,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,24]
[null,25,"2004-02-04",979.07772554209294,null,null,{"$f":"SLOPE(D7:D256,$W$7:$W$256)","v":1.5189535375498748},{"$f":"FDIST(ABS(H30),1,COUNT(D7:D256)-2)","v":4.2266072018074827E-69},{"$f":"G31/J30","v":24.798491726702377},{"$f":"TDIST(ABS(I31),COUNT(D7:D256)-1,2)","v":3.2327009469300739E-69},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.66650431043118075,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,25]
[null,26,"2004-02-05",968.29595551087755,null,"Trend-Percentage",{"$f":"SIGN(G31)*I30","v":0.71261876803116242},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.46064755897207388,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,26]
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[null,30,"2004-02-11",949.92543641203122,null,null,{"$f":"SLOPE(D217:D256,$W$217:$W$256)","v":1.8395026899812494},{"$f":"FDIST(ABS(H35),1,COUNT(D217:D256)-2)","v":5.3370074835918497E-4},{"$f":"G36/J35","v":3.7835385419814811},{"$f":"TDIST(ABS(I36),COUNT(D217:D256)-1,2)","v":5.2002337862336605E-4},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.55356142617703763,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,30]
[null,31,"2004-02-12",966.39555345496433,null,"Trend-Percentage",{"$f":"SIGN(G36)*I35","v":0.27363316545064281},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.51955628992860237,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,31]
[null,32,"2004-02-13",941.4916391276638,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,1.2639041847443577E-2,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,32]
[null,33,"2004-02-16",951.11277573333302,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.97268035465835412,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,33]
[null,34,"2004-02-17",933.63814340060003,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,1.0843172588275385E-2,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,34]
[null,35,"2004-02-18",951.21705397516132,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.9635467804614426,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,35]
[null,36,"2004-02-19",947.47656123111835,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.42039233328607351,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,36]
[null,37,"2004-02-20",969.44140162834549,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.73746577774863487,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,37]
[null,38,"2004-02-23",979.06842266467959,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.78290288385983575,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,38]
[null,39,"2004-02-24",989.29576917980432,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.70129707262643604,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,39]
[null,40,"2004-02-25",969.13703147633555,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.40855757242743218,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,40]
[null,41,"2004-02-26",986.55717951586882,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.9798351739138933,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,41]
[null,42,"2004-02-27",960.45085007874093,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.21029674724333836,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,42]
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[null,53,"2004-03-15",1001.6749178577095,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.3410394784844476,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,53]
[null,54,"2004-03-16",1004.113239552706,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.95331424402197018,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,54]
[null,55,"2004-03-17",974.39561127147977,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.4518055220420194,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,55]
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[null,57,"2004-03-19",948.61340631504459,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,7.163435608194535E-2,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,57]
[null,58,"2004-03-22",956.8055791255166,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.80038176385790705,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,58]
[null,59,"2004-03-23",960.16562464689127,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.8858954440982999,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,59]
[null,60,"2004-03-24",969.53943393553277,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.94232972233227197,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,60]
[null,61,"2004-03-25",988.92105250284294,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.83421125476077107,null,{"$f":"NA()","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},null,61]
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